Message on El Niño from Mr Sefanaia Nawadra, Director General of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).
SPREP as one of the node members of the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) Pacific Regional Climate Centre made a declaration on Friday 12 June 2026 that an El Niño event is now underway. For many Pacific Islanders this raises an important question, “What do we need to know and do to protect our families and our community?”
Knowledge empowers, and preparation essential. I’m writing this column not only as the Director General of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) but as a parent, and a Pacific Islander brought up in the islands knowing full well the impacts that weather and climate play in our lives and communities.
The impacts of El Niño can be far-reaching, making it critical that we understand the risks, stay informed, and take practical steps to prepare for the months ahead.
Before we look at what lies ahead, let’s first understand what El Niño is.
Our Pacific climate is influenced by different climate drivers, one of these being the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO has three phases – the Neutral phase, which is when things are operating as normal, and La Niña phase when the trade winds strengthen, causing ocean temperatures in the western Pacific to be warmer than normal and the eastern Pacific to be colder than normal thus bringing more rainfall to countries in the western Pacific.
The third, the El Niño phase is when these trade winds weaken, causing the ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, from Nauru and Kiribati to northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia, to become warmer than normal due to the weakening of easterly trade winds.
SPREP and its RCC partners have declared that we are now in an El Niño phase. But what does this mean?
El Niño will affect countries differently across our Pacific region based on size and geographic location. While some areas may experience drought, others may face heavy rainfall and flooding.
Twenty of our Pacific Small Islands States that lie in the eastern and central Pacific face an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall and potential drought conditions. These include American Samoa, southern Cook Islands, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, southern French Polynesia, Guam, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Islands, New Caledonia, Niue, northern Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, southern Tokelau, Tonga, southern Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Wallis and Futuna.
These dry conditions may lead to water shortage and drought, reduced crop production and yield, increased risks of wildfires, and added stress on food security and livelihoods.
For families and communities in these countries, preparation must begin now to minimise the impacts of El Niño. You can do this by conserving your water usage and investing in water tanks for your homes and ensuring they are filled.
Some of our community members across these Pacific islands are farmers and fishers. During this time, our farmers can adjust planting schedule and use drought-resistant crops as we head towards a likely prolonged dry period. Fishers can heed the advisories from their national and regional fisheries agencies as warmer ocean temperatures will lead to the bleaching of coral reefs, impacting food security and livelihoods. Countries in the western Pacific will usually face lower sea levels exposing coral reefs to direct sunlight or shallow warmer waters.
Our elderly and young children can become vulnerable to extremely hot conditions in some countries. The global fuel crisis happening at the backdrop of an El Niño event will have severe compounding impacts on cooling systems reliant on power to combat prolonged extreme temperatures. I encourage parents to source other forms of energy, if possible, to provide the required cooling and power supply if this fuel crisis continues.
Cool temperatures in the western Pacific Islands is also a sign of El Nino. Some countries are already facing cooler temperatures than normal with the highland of Papua New Guinea experiencing frost in June. I encourage us all to keep our elderly, and our children warm, especially those with respiratory illnesses.
In other Pacific Small Islands Developing States in the Central and Eastern Pacific, such as northern Cook Islands, far eastern Federated states of Micronesia, northern French Polynesia, Kiribati, southern Marshall Islands, Nauru and northern Tuvalu, El Niño will bring above-normal rainfall. This may result in the increased risk of flooding, coastal inundation, water contamination, and damage to infrastructure. El Niño will also impact their health systems, with the increase in rainfall bringing about higher chances for water-borne diseases such as typhoid fever, and illnesses caused by mosquitoes, such as dengue fever.
For families and communities in these countries, it is important to prepare by ensuring that water storage areas are safe and free from risks of contamination from flood waters. Prepare an emergency kit you can grab-and-go if and when needed.
Having an evacuation plan in place is also important for families and communities in low-lying areas in the case of flooding. All family members or members of your community need to be aware of what to do, where to go, and how to get there. Our plans must outline when to make the call to evacuate, identify the evacuation area as well as the safest route to get there.
El Niño will also affect the 2026-27 Tropical Cyclone season for the Southwest and northwest Pacific. Countries in the central and eastern Pacific that will be experiencing warmer than normal ocean temperatures will have an elevated risk of tropical cyclone occurrence during El Niño, while countries in the western Pacific will see a decreased risk of tropical cyclone activity. Families and communities are encouraged to strengthen their homes and infrastructure well before the tropical cyclone season, which typically runs from November to April.
While most of the impacts have been perceived as negative, and there may be much doom and gloom ahead, there are also positive impacts that the El Niño event will bring about for some of our Pacific island countries.
For example, fishers in Kiribati, Nauru, and Tuvalu can expect higher tuna catch during El Niño, as the ocean temperatures around them will be warmer, attracting the tuna stocks to migrate there. These countries will now also receive more rainfall than normal and will be a good chance for them to fill up their water reserves and water tanks.
El Niño is a slow-onset event. This means that the impacts will not be felt immediately, but rather slowly over time. This also means that we have time to prepare our families and communities for the impacts it will bring, but we must do so now. That brings me back to the message I had at the start of this column – knowledge empowers, planning and preparation is essential.
We are living in an age where there is an overwhelming amount of information available on the internet, and this El Niño event is no different. At SPREP, we work closely with and support our Pacific National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and the National Disaster Management Offices to provide our Pacific communities with important, life-saving climate information.
They will receive the latest science on El Niño, and the prediction for what the next few months will look like for our region. They are our go-to source for all official information on El Niño, and how it will impact your country specifically.
I urge us all to heed the advice of our National Meteorological Service, keep an eye out for their latest updates, and use this information to prepare to protect our families and communities.
An informed, empowered and prepared Pacific is a safer and more resilient Pacific.
Sefanaia Nawadra.