8 May 2025, Apia Samoa - National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across the Pacific are urged to plan ahead and work with communities to reduce the impacts of extreme weather events likely to be associated with the ENSO Neutral phase of the climate cycle.
At the conclusion of the Sixteenth Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-16) held virtually, the WMO RA-V Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network declared that the region is entering an ENSO Neutral phase for the next five months, though there is low confidence in the prediction because of the spring predictability barrier.
ENSO Neutral refers to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral state. Whereas El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.
So, what does this mean for the Pacific region and what can communities expect? Senior Climatologist at the Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP), Mr Philip Malsale, said the ENSO Neutral phase is also associated with extreme impacts across the region. The impacts are related to rainfall, air temperature, ocean surface temperature, sea levels, coral bleaching and likely tropical cyclones.
“We expect below normal rainfall in the Central Equatorial Pacific over Nauru, Phoenix Islands (Kiribati), as well as Eastern FSM and RMI. Above normal rainfall is expected over Palau, PNG, Solomon Islands. Above normal rainfall is also predicted over Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa,” Mr Malsale explained.
“From August to October 2025, below-normal rainfall is expected around the southern off-equatorial central Pacific region near Tuvalu, Kiribati, Northern Cook Islands. Above normal rainfall is favoured in the Western North Pacific over Palau and parts of the FSM.”
Mr Malsale also cautioned Pacific NMHSs to note regions where abnormally higher tides are predicted and higher than normal sea levels, pointing out that the combination of higher tides and above-normal sea levels may elevate the risk of coastal inundation.
“Coral bleaching alerts are in effect for Palau, southern FSM, PNG, Nauru, western Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu from April to July 2025. These alerts are expected to remain in effect to July.”
PICOF-16 was attended by more than 70 participants consisting of NMHS officials, members of the Pacific Regional Climate Centre (PI-RCC) Network, World Metrological Organisation (WMO), technical and regional partners. They reviewed the climate and oceanic conditions in the western Pacific region from 1 November 2024 to 23 April 2025 and discussed the seasonal climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the western Pacific region for 1 May to 30 October 2025.
SPREP’s Officer in Charge for Climate Services Information, Mr Naheed Hussein, said the PICOF plays a vital role in strengthening the good working relationship between regional organisation and RCC within SPREP, and between NMHSs and sectors in country. This is vital for the protection of members of the communities when it comes to different weather cycles.
“It is important to note that although we are expecting ENSO neutral, this can also link to some extreme events in some countries,” said Mr Hussein.
“NMHS and sectors should plan ahead on how to reduce impacts of extreme events associated with this ENSO phase through organising National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) and update government agencies on sectors, joint radio programmes on how best to prepapre, social media post informing communities on best practises, and awareness programmes. Sectors know best when it comes to sectoral impacts and it is best to work with them to plan ahead, this is vital in our work to protect lives and properties.”
For members of the community, Mr Malsale and Mr Hussein they must stay informed, take heed of alerts and ensure they access the correct information and warnings from their National Meteorological Services.
“Please reach out to the NMHS for latest climate information,” said Mr Malsale. “Preparation at an individual, family level or sector level can help a country well prepare to minimise the negative impacts of climate extreme events.”
For different sectors, they are encouraged to liaise with NMHS for monthly prediction for rainfall and other climate drivers that influence climate and weather related through the Pacific Weekly ACCESS-S update.
For more information on the outlook for the next five months, visit: https://www.pacificmet.net/pacific-islands-climate-outlook-and-stakeholder-forum-picof-16
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DID YOU KNOW?
El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña